Developing an effective 2-D urban flood inundation model for city emergency management based on cellular automata

Flash floods have occurred frequently in the urban areas of southern China. An effective process-oriented urban flood inundation model is urgently needed for urban storm-water and emergency management. This study develops an efficient and flexible cellular automaton (CA) model to simulate storm-water runoff and the flood inundation process during extreme storm events. The process of infiltration, inlets discharge and flow dynamics can be simulated with little preprocessing on commonly available basic urban geographic data. In this model, a set of gravitational diverging rules are implemented to govern the water flow in a rectangular template of three cells by three cells of a raster layer. The model is calibrated by one storm event and validated by another in a small urban catchment in Guangzhou of southern China. The depth of accumulated water at the catchment outlet is interpreted from street-monitoring closed-circuit television (CCTV) videos and verified by on-site survey. A good level of agreement between the simulated process and the reality is reached for both storm events. The model reproduces the changing extent and depth of flooded areas at the catchment outlet with an accuracy of 4 cm in water depth. Comparisons with a physically based 2-D model (FloodMap) show that the model is capable of effectively simulating flow dynamics. The high computational efficiency of the CA model can meet the needs of city emergency management

Socioeconomic status and dietary patterns in children from around the world : different associations by levels of country human development?

Background: Although 'unhealthy' diet is a well-known risk factor for non-communicable diseases, its relationship with socio-economic status (SES) has not been fully investigated. Moreover, the available research has largely been conducted in countries at high levels of human development. This is the first study to examine relationships among dietary patterns and SES of children from countries spanning a wide range of human development. Methods: This was a multinational cross-sectional study among 9-11 year-old children (n = 6808) from urban/peri-urban sites across 12 countries. Self-reported food frequency questionnaires were used to determine the children's dietary patterns. Principal Components Analysis was employed to create two component scores representing 'unhealthy' and 'healthy' dietary patterns. Multilevel models accounting for clustering at the school and site level were used to examine the relationships among dietary patterns and SES. Results: The mean age of participants in this study (53.7% girls) was 10.4 years. Largest proportions of total variance in dietary patterns occurred at the individual, site, and school levels (individual, school, site: 62.8%; 10.8%; 26.4% for unhealthy diet pattern (UDP) and 88.9%; 3.7%; 7.4%) for healthy diet pattern (HDP) respectively. There were significant negative 'unhealthy' diet-SES gradients in 7 countries and positive 'healthy' diet-SES gradients in 5. Within country diet-SES gradients did not significantly differ by HDI. Compared to participants in the highest SES groups, unhealthy diet pattern scores were significantly higher among those in the lowest within-country SES groups in 8 countries: odds ratios for Australia (2.69; 95% CI: 1.33-5.42), Canada (4.09; 95% CI: 2.02-8.27), Finland (2.82; 95% CI: 1.27-6.22), USA (4.31; 95% CI: 2.20-8.45), Portugal (2.09; 95% CI: 1.06-4.11), South Africa (2.77; 95% CI: 1.22-6.28), India (1.88; 95% CI: 1.12-3.15) and Kenya (3.35; 95% CI: 1.91-5.87). Conclusions: This study provides evidence of diet-SES gradients across all levels of human development and that lower within-country SES is strongly related to unhealthy dietary patterns. Consistency in within-country diet-SES gradients suggest that interventions and public health strategies aimed at improving dietary patterns among children may be similarly employed globally. However, future studies should seek to replicate these findings in more representative samples extended to more rural representation.Peer reviewe

Influence of Dipole Orientation on Solution Properties of Polyzwitterions

We have studied the influence of segmental dipole orientation on the solution properties of polyzwitterions using dynamic and static light scattering of poly­(2-methacryloyloxyethyl phosphorylcholine) (PMPC), <i>n</i>-butyl-substituted choline phosphate polymers (PMBP), and their diblock (PMPC-<i>b</i>-PMBP) copolymers in solutions of different salt concentration. We find that these three structures exhibit dramatically different aggregation behaviors. For the conditions in our study, PMPC is a swollen excluded-volume chain without significant presence of dipolar correlations as evident from the lack of sensitivity to the ionic strength of the solution. In contrast, PMBP self-assembles into finite-sized structures in solution, which are stabilized by electrostatic dipole–dipole interactions. Evidence of these interactions is also present in the diblock polymer, PMPB-<i>b</i>-PMPC, which self-assembles into two distinct, stable aggregates in addition to unaggregated chains. These results contribute to the breadth of understanding of polyzwitterions in solution and provide a platform for future simulation and experimental explorations

A model for presenting accelerometer paradata in large studies: ISCOLE

Background: We present a model for reporting accelerometer paradata (process-related data produced from survey administration) collected in the International Study of Childhood Obesity Lifestyle and the Environment (ISCOLE), a multi-national investigation of >7000 children (averaging 10.5 years of age) sampled from 12 different developed and developing countries and five continents. Methods: ISCOLE employed a 24-hr waist worn 7-day protocol using the ActiGraph GT3X+. Checklists, flow charts, and systematic data queries documented accelerometer paradata from enrollment to data collection and treatment. Paradata included counts of consented and eligible participants, accelerometers distributed for initial and additional monitoring (site specific decisions in the face of initial monitoring failure), inadequate data (e.g., lost/malfunction, insufficient wear time), and averages for waking wear time, valid days of data, participants with valid data (>4 valid days of data, including 1 weekend day), and minutes with implausibly high values (>20,000 activity counts/min). Results: Of 7806 consented participants, 7372 were deemed eligible to participate, 7314 accelerometers were distributed for initial monitoring and another 106 for additional monitoring. 414 accelerometer data files were inadequate (primarily due to insufficient wear time). Only 29 accelerometers were lost during the implementation of ISCOLE worldwide. The final locked data file consisted of 6553 participant files (90.0% relative to number of participants who completed monitoring) with valid waking wear time, averaging 6.5 valid days and 888.4 minutes/day (14.8 hours). We documented 4762 minutes with implausibly high activity count values from 695 unique participants (9.4% of eligible participants and <0.01% of all minutes). Conclusions: Detailed accelerometer paradata is useful for standardizing communication, facilitating study management, improving the representative qualities of surveys, tracking study endpoint attainment, comparing studies, and ultimately anticipating and controlling costs

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8–61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2–86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4–24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0–10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7–13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1–8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016